Singtel: An SOTP
Valuation

My SOTP for Singtel arrives at S$4.59 per share. CGS International published a S$5.34 RNAV-based target on 21 May. The gap is 14%, and it is not model error. It is the difference between what the business is worth on current-market, current-operating inputs and what it could be worth if a pipeline of asset monetisation events lands on schedule.

Why SOTP is the right tool here

Singtel is not a telco. The listed equity wraps a Singapore consumer and enterprise network, an Australian carrier working through post-breach restructuring, a data centre business growing fast enough to attract a growth multiple, and meaningful stakes in seven associates spanning India, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Singapore itself. Running a single DCF across that structure forces you to treat Bharti Airtel's market-cap-backed value as a discounted cash flow — which it is not. The DCF approach systematically undervalues the associate portfolio.

Sum-of-parts is appropriate because each component has a distinct risk profile, distinct comparables, and a distinct question the market is pricing. The Singapore core business is mature, relatively regulated, and generates predictable EBITDA; it compresses correctly to an EV/EBITDA multiple. Optus is still working through the economics of its 2023 breach remediation — a 4.0× multiple is conservative-generous for a carrier in recovery, below Australian peers but reflecting the ongoing uncertainty. The DC segment attracts a 24.1× EBITDA multiple because its growth trajectory peers it to regional data centre operators, not to the parent's core telco business. Associates, where listed, are valued at current market prices. Telkomsel — the one material unlisted associate — is valued at a peer P/E.

The alternative most brokers reach for is RNAV, or Revalued Net Asset Value. RNAV and SOTP share the same additive architecture but diverge on asset valuation. RNAV marks assets at appraised values, incorporates premiums for announced monetisations, and projects forward values for businesses being restructured or sold. My SOTP uses current-market prices and current operating inputs throughout. That conservatism is deliberate. I want a floor — the value that exists without needing any transaction to close, any appraisal to crystallise, any deal to complete on time.

The numbers

The three operating segments produce a combined core EV of S$22,047m. Singapore ex-DC contributes S$8,940m (EBITDA S$1,788m at 5.0× EV/EBITDA), reflecting a mature infrastructure business with limited growth but reliable cash conversion. Optus contributes S$8,576m (EBITDA S$2,144m at 4.0×); the multiple discounts Australian telco peer comparables to account for residual uncertainty on capex trajectory and subscriber economics post-breach. The Data Centre segment contributes S$4,531m at 80% ownership (EBITDA S$235m at 24.1×, consistent with regional DC trading multiples). Deducting estimated net debt of S$8,000m and minority interests of S$157m leaves core equity of S$13,890m before associates.

Core operating businesses

The associate portfolio is where Singtel's story becomes a conglomerate story — and where the largest single driver lives. Bharti Airtel alone accounts for S$40,719m in stake value at 27.5% ownership, translating to S$2.46 per Singtel share. That is more than half the entire associate portfolio by value, and it moves proportionally with the Bombay Stock Exchange.

Associates

Associate	Stake	Method	SGD value (m)	Per share
Bharti Airtel	27.5%	Market price	S$40,719	S$2.46
AIS direct	24.8%	Market price	S$10,252	S$0.62
Telkomsel	30.1%	Peer P/E (11.3×)	S$4,824	S$0.29
Gulf Development	7.7%	Market price	S$2,726	S$0.16
Globe	46.6%	Market price	S$2,478	S$0.15
NetLink NBN	24.8%	Market price	S$977	S$0.06
SingPost	21.8%	Market price	S$164	S$0.01
Total associates			S$62,140	S$3.75

Equity bridge

Line item	S$m	Per share
Core EV	S$22,047	S$1.33
Less: net debt	(S$8,000)	(S$0.48)
Less: minority interest	(S$157)	(S$0.01)
Core equity	S$13,890	S$0.84
Plus: associates	S$62,140	S$3.75
Gross SOTP per share	S$76,030	S$4.59

Adding S$13,890m core equity and S$62,140m in associates yields gross equity of S$76,030m — S$4.59 per share across 16,558m shares outstanding. With no holdco discount applied, this is the SOTP. A holdco discount, if applied, would reflect the market's reluctance to pay full fair value for conglomerate structures where the investor cannot directly access all components. Southeast Asian holding companies have historically traded at 15–25% discounts to SOTP. The widget below lets you apply one.

Where I diverge from CGS

CGS International's S$5.34 RNAV target incorporates asset values I am not including. Their methodology marks the DC business at an appraised value above current trading multiples, bakes in incremental value from the STT-GDC acquisition closing in H2 FY26F, and incorporates a premium for tower monetisation optionality that has been flagged but not executed. These are not irrational inclusions — if you believe management will crystallise those premiums on time and at the forecasted price, the RNAV framework captures them correctly. The methodology is internally consistent.

My number is conservative in a specific way: it excludes all of that. It asks what Singtel is worth with the assets it has, valued at prices the market is actually trading today. The S$0.75 gap between S$4.59 and S$5.34 is almost entirely the premium assigned to prospective monetisations. If those events materialise — the DC deal closes, the tower process advances, the DC appraisal proves accurate — then the CGS number converges toward being correct. If they slip, the SOTP floor holds. Both targets are defensible; they are answering different questions. DBS's S$4.27 SOTP target (May 2025) and CGS's own S$4.10 DCF target (June 2025) suggest the floor has been well-understood for some time.